In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, maintaining a steady yet modest pace below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000 to 2019 . While inflation is expected to decline, with global headline inflation forecasted to reach 4.2% in 2025, the IMF underscores the need for structural reforms to invigorate productivity and address mounting debt levels .
A significant aspect of the IMF’s analysis focuses on the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the global economy. In a recent working paper titled “The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap,” the IMF highlights that AI is poised to exacerbate income disparities between nations. Advanced economies, equipped with greater access to technology and data, are projected to experience growth impacts from AI that could be more than double those in low-income countries .
The IMF’s findings indicate that AI’s benefits are closely tied to a country’s sectoral exposure to AI, readiness to integrate these technologies, and access to essential data and infrastructure. Without targeted policies, there’s a risk that AI could deepen existing inequalities, leaving emerging and developing economies further behind .
In the Asia-Pacific region, the IMF notes that approximately 50% of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI, compared to about 25% in emerging markets. However, many roles in advanced economies are more likely to be complemented by AI, enhancing productivity rather than leading to job displacement. This dynamic could further widen the gap between nations if not addressed through inclusive policies .
The IMF emphasizes that AI’s potential to boost productivity and economic growth is significant, but realizing these benefits requires proactive policy measures. Investments in education, digital infrastructure, and regulatory frameworks are essential to ensure that AI contributes to shared prosperity rather than exacerbating disparities .
As such, while the IMF’s outlook for global growth remains cautious, the integration of AI presents both opportunities and challenges. To harness AI’s potential for inclusive growth, coordinated efforts are needed to bridge the digital divide, support workforce transitions, and implement policies that promote equitable access to AI technologies. By doing so, the global community can work towards a future where AI serves as a catalyst for shared economic advancement.
